"And you may pook
And you may shove
But a Sussex pig:
He wunt be druv."
In a vain attempt to
boost my readership and demonstrate how in touch with popular culture I am, I’
m going to shamelessly start this blog post with a reference to a couple that
have been in the popular printing press recently, namely Prince Henry and Princess
Mary Meghanmarkle (see? I keep in touch). Keen newspaper-enthusiasts will know
that they are titled as the Duke and Duchess of Sussex (or, more informally: "the Sussexes of Sussex").
I grew up in Sussex.
Although I am (according to a recent DNA test, non-court related) 98.4% Welsh
genetically, my family have been in Sussex for around about a century now. In
fact, in the Sussex village that I live in, I am now only two generations off
being considered ‘local’. And if you grow up in Sussex, you will be aware of
our county motto – also printed on bottles of our local brew, Harveys Beer:
“We wunt be druv”
In Sussex dialogue, this means “we won’t be driven” – in other words, you can’t tell us
what to think.
I think there is
something of this still in the Sussex character. I’ve no doubt that one of my heroes,
Tom Paine, one of the inspirations behind the American revolution, had ideas
forged by his Sussex background. He was from Lewes, and was, incidentally, arguably
one of the three most famous people to come from the Lewes region (the
other two being the puritan Anthony Stepley, a Lewes local who signed the death
warrant for Charles I and played a part in banning mince pies, and journalist Piers
Morgan, who comes from adjacent Newick. Scholars are currently divided over which of the two could be considered the biggest mood killer at parties).
Although they have only
reportedly spent a total of 5.5 hours in Sussex, I like to think that something
of this character has rubbed off on the Royal couple. Accordingly, I wish them well and I hope they enjoy
Canada and competing in next year’s Celebrity Love Dancing Strictly on Ice.
One of the items to
get the most coverage is the fact that the taxpayer ultimately underwrote the
renovation of the house which they currently RENT. (Ed: See? I managed to segue
seamlessly back to the housing market! Clever eh?)
In this regard they are
typical of their demographic: priced out of buying a palace of their own by sky-high asset
prices, they are instead forced to rent their palace, unlike their baby-boomer Princely
parents who obtained palaces whey they were comparatively cheap (ie approx. 1485).
Is it any wonder they want to emigrate?
This is of course
reflected throughout the wider housing market, right down to the hovels that us
serfs live in, where house prices are through the roof, massively penalizing a
generation, and setting the scene for the great Peasants' Revolt of 2024/5.
Now, despite being
told consistently for years that my view is nonsense, and that high houses
prices are actually down to a lack of supply, over and over again on this blog
I have been ranting about the real cause: nothing to do with a lack of supply,
but almost entirely down to low interest rates. I have been told repeatedly
that I am wrong, in all sorts of different forums, by all sorts of different
people (for example, see comments here: https://propertyindustryeye.com/we-dont-need-more-new-homes-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-claim/).
But I wunt be druv.
And now - hurrah! - the Bank of England have published a paper more or less
proving my point - saying that, if the main cause of rising prices was a lack of
properties, then rents would also have increased sharply – but this has not
happened.
And then, to
quote:
“Nearly
all of the rise in average house prices relative to incomes can be seen as a
result of a sustained, dramatic, and consistently unexpected, decline in real
interest rates. ”
I have already heard
three separate housing experts on the radio say this is now the cause, and was
all along, forgetting that almost no one outside my little tinfoil-hat wearing community thought this even six months ago.
I am admittedly consistently
wrong about timings and predictions, but still: ta da! I win.
You can download the
paper here, although it’s quicker to read my blogposts from 2013-2019 (and
ignore the bits on timings and predictions – in economics, things always take
longer to happen than you think, anyway – although when they do happen, they
happen faster than you think they will):
Worryingly, the paper also states that: “...average house prices could plunge by one-fifth
if there is an unexpected interest rate rise of 1 percentage point”. This indicates that they have only read half
of my blog posts so far.
I’ll update you when
they read the rest of my posts, and publish their next paper *Spoiler alert*: it’s
going to be titled “Oh Sh*t we’re all
going to hell in a handcart, economically speaking, aren’t we?”.
So just goes to
show: make your own mind up, and don’t listen to what 99% of the economists and
housing experts say on the meedja, because three years later they’ll change
their minds, and claim that they didn’t think that at all anyway.
In other words: don’t
be druv, bruv.
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